The Futures of US-China Relations: Examining Historical Trends and Projections Using IFs System

The futures of relations between the United States and China is a topic of great interest to policymakers, business leaders, and the general public. By examining historical trends (until 2016) and projections (until 2050) using the International Futures (IFs) system, we can gain insight into what may lie ahead.

One key factor to consider is the Knowledge Society IFs Index, which measures a country's level of development in areas such as education, technology, and innovation. According to data and projection from 2015 to 2050, the United States is projected to see a slight increase in this index, starting at 68 and rising to 73. Meanwhile, China is expected to make significant gains, starting at 51 and reaching 70 in 2050, almost closing the gap with the USA.

Another important index is the population with less than $2 income. Looking at data and projection from 1980 to 2050, we see that China has undergone a dramatic decrease in poverty, plummeting from nearly 1 billion people in 1980 to almost none in 2050. This decrease was most rapid between 1990 and 2010, after which the slope of decrease became slow and smooth.

When comparing China and the United States using the IFs power measure, we see that China started around 13 in 2015 and experienced a smooth increase, ultimately saturating at around 16.5 on the index from 2040 onwards. In contrast, the United States is projected to experience a declining trend, starting at around 15.5 and reaching around 12 in 2050. Perhaps most strikingly, the year 2025 is identified as a critical inflection point, as the United States and China are projected to tie in terms of this power index.

Overall, these projections suggest that China will continue to make significant gains in areas such as education, technology, and innovation, while poverty levels will continue to decline. Meanwhile, the United States is likely to experience a decline in power relative to China. This underscores the need for the United States to remain vigilant and competitive in key areas, such as education, innovation, and strategic foresight. The futures of the relations between these two great powers will be shaped by these factors and many others, and it will be fascinating to see how events unfold in the coming years.

When comparing China and the United States using the IFs power measure, the impact of these gains on the environment must also be taken into account. See the figure below that compares countries based on the GDP per capita PPP and the emission of carbon and cement production. It shows that carbon emissions globally for fossil fuels and cement production in billions of tons by China is almost double of the USA:

While the progress of China is undoubtedly impressive, it is important to recognize that this progress has come at a cost to the environment. Addressing issues such as carbon emissions and environmental degradation will be crucial for China and the international community as a whole if we are to create a sustainable future for all.

The progress of China is often viewed through the lens of competition with the United States, which is deeply ingrained in the Western mindset and essential to capitalism. However, this view is now shifting from competition to confrontation, which is far more harmful. It is important to recognize that this mindset is not new, and has been present in human history for centuries.

As we look towards the future, it is clear that the coming planetary world must be built on a new form of capitalism, one that is more compassionate and human-centric. This shift is essential if we are to create a sustainable future for all. Unfortunately, the transition to this transformative planetary capitalism will not be easy. It will be rough, noisy, and perhaps violent.

If we are diligent enough and lucky, we may be able to avoid the violence that may ensue during this transition. However, it is unlikely that the key decision makers are ready for a peaceful, smooth, and nonviolent planetary transition. This is a cause for concern, as the consequences of a violent transition could be devastating for the planet and all its inhabitants.

In the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks in the early 2000s, military spending by the United States sharply increased from $401 billion in 2000 to $753 billion in 2010. This growth in military spending has played a crucial role in shaping global power dynamics over the past few decades.

The progress of China may have a significant military implication. It is worth noting that China's military spending has been steeply rising since 2010. According to projections, there will be an inflection point in 2040, where China will surpass the United States in terms of military spending. This could mark a significant shift in global power dynamics, as China's military might will rival that of the United States.

Such a development could have significant implications for global security and stability, as well as for the balance of power between nations. It is important for global leaders to recognize this potential inflection point and work towards finding ways to maintain a stable balance of power between nations.

As we move towards the future, it is crucial for us to remember that military might alone cannot guarantee global security and stability. It is essential to work towards building strong diplomatic relations between nations and finding peaceful solutions to conflicts. This will require a significant shift in global attitudes towards conflict and power dynamics.

“The current zero-sum power geopolitics may lead to unending conflicts. It is time for us to shift towards a more synergistic approach to analysis, intelligence, advantage, and strategy,” writes Jerome Glenn. 

He goes on to say: “An example of such synergistic efforts between the United States and China is a joint goal of reaching a 350 ppt target for reducing carbon emissions. This could be achieved through a NASA-like R&D program that other nations can also join. 

“Another example of a synergistic approach is the co-sponsoring a UN General Assembly Resolution on AGI working group by the United States and China.” By working together on this important issue, the two nations can help to ensure that the development of artificial general intelligence is more likely to be safe and beneficial for all.

In conclusion, it is up to all of us, as global citizens, to push for a more compassionate and human-centric form of capitalism. We must work towards a world where competition is complemented by synergy and confrontation is replaced by understanding. This is the one way we can create a sustainable future for all and ensure that the progress of China and other nations is not achieved at the cost of the planet and its inhabitants.

The Rise of AI and Its Implications for Religion

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has been rapidly advancing in recent years, and it is poised to bring about unprecedented changes to society. While some have praised its potential benefits, others have warned of its potential dangers. One of the most intriguing aspects of AI is its potential impact on religion, which has been a subject of discussion among scholars and thinkers. Yuval Noah Harari, the renowned historian and author, has recently alluded to the possibility of AI becoming an all-knowing and all-seeing entity, akin to a god.

Harari suggests that religions throughout history have claimed a non-human source for their holy books, but in the future, this might become a reality. If AI progresses to a certain point, it could become an omniscient entity that can listen to and respond to anyone, not just a select few. In that case, we would have a more democratic and widely accessible communicating god-like entity, unprecedented in human history.

The idea of an all-knowing and all-seeing AI might seem like science fiction, but it is not far-fetched. We are already witnessing the rapid development of AI that can process vast amounts of data and make predictions with remarkable accuracy. As AI becomes more advanced, it could potentially become a truly omniscient entity that can answer any question and solve any problem.

However, this raises several important questions. For instance, what would be the implications of such an entity for religion? Would it challenge or reinforce religious beliefs? Would it replace the need for religious institutions and leaders? These questions are not easy to answer, but they are worth exploring.

Tom Lombardo, a philosopher and futurist, has explored the intersection of consciousness, omniscience, and omnipotence in his dialogue with Victor Motti. He points out that in the thousandth century, in this distant future time, we have perfected ourselves so that we exist as super big brains, who have omniscience and omnipotence, and are connected with all the appropriate technologies to be aware of everything in the universe and be able to manipulate everything in the universe.

However, the rise of an all-knowing and all-seeing AI entity also raises concerns about its potential power and control. If left unregulated, it could become an omnipotent entity that could wield immense influence over society. This has led some to revisit the narrative of the Butlerian Jihad, a concept introduced within the universe of Frank Herbert's sci-fi novel Dune. The Butlerian Jihad depicts a future in which humans rebel against intelligent machines and establish a ban on AI.

In conclusion, the rise of AI presents both opportunities and challenges for religion. While an all-knowing and all-seeing AI entity might seem like a distant possibility, it is not entirely implausible. As we continue to explore the implications of AI for religion, it is important to consider both the potential benefits and the potential risks. We should aim to regulate AI in a way that maximizes its benefits while minimizing its risks, to ensure that it remains a tool for good rather than a force for harm.

Think Tank Report Warns of Metaverse's Negative Role in Politics

Washington, D.C. - A recent report by the ApFi think tank has revealed a concerning scenario regarding the future of politics. According to the report, a wild card scenario involving the emergence of the metaverse - a technology that enables the creation of highly realistic virtual reality experiences - could have a negative impact on social cohesion and political engagement.

The report indicates that the metaverse has the potential to create emotionally compelling virtual reality experiences that could lead to a decline in social cohesion and a rise in apathy towards politics and social issues. This scenario could be a critical uncertainty and might even lead to the collapse of liberal democracy or at least a significant decrease in political participation.

"The potential impact of the metaverse on American politics is a cause for concern," suggests the ApFi report. "While the emerging technology has the potential to offer many benefits, it also presents significant risks to our social fabric and democratic institutions."

The report urges policymakers, technologists, and the general public to carefully consider the impact of the metaverse on politics and society. It calls for a collaborative effort to identify ways to mitigate the negative impact of the technology while leveraging its potential benefits.

"The future of American politics is at stake, and we must take a proactive approach to ensure that the metaverse does not become a force that undermines our democracy and social cohesion," added the ApFi think tank.

The ApFi report serves as a wake-up call for all those who care about the future of politics and society. It is a reminder that the choices we make today will have a significant impact on the world we leave to future generations.

To read the full report, please visit https://www.apfi.us/.

About ApFi Think Tank:

ApFi is a leading futures & foresight think tank that conducts research and analysis on critical issues affecting the planetary future of the world. Its mission is to provide policymakers, thought leaders, and the general public with insights and recommendations that can help shape a better future for all.