Climate Change and Geopolitics: The Emergence of a Fortress World

Climate change has long been a topic of concern, and its potential consequences have generated numerous debates. If the scenarios projected by scientists and experts come to fruition, the implications for geopolitics are indeed dire. The effects of climate change could destabilize nation-states, challenge sovereignty, and reshape the very concept of citizenship and nationality. This analysis explores the potential emergence of a fortress world, reminiscent of feudal history and walled areas, where major urban areas act as strongholds while areas beyond face grave challenges in energy, food, and physical security.

Collapse of Nation-States and the Challenge to Sovereignty:

As climate change intensifies, the geopolitical landscape is likely to witness a wave of destabilization that could ultimately lead to the collapse of nation-states. The strain on resources, such as water and arable land, coupled with the displacement of populations due to rising sea levels and extreme weather events, may overwhelm the capacities of governments. This could result in a loss of control and authority, challenging the very notion of sovereignty as we know it today.


The Erosion of Energy, Food, and Physical Security: 

Outside the protective walls of major urban areas, the impact of climate change will be acutely felt. Energy sources may become scarce, food production could be severely hampered by changing weather patterns and declining agricultural productivity, and physical security might be compromised due to resource conflicts and mass migration. The consequences of these challenges will be profound, as citizens will heavily rely on the urban centers for their survival and well-being.


The Shifting Meaning of Citizenship and Nationality: 

In a world where the walls of major urban areas provide relative security and access to essential resources, citizenship and nationality will undergo a significant transformation. Traditional notions of belonging to a nation-state and enjoying the privileges associated with it may diminish in importance. Instead, the concept of citizenship will be redefined as belonging to a specific city or fortified urban area. In this new reality, allegiance to a local stronghold will become paramount, overshadowing national identity.


The Emergence of a Fortress World: 

Drawing parallels to feudal history and walled areas, the future shaped by climate change may witness the rise of a fortress world. Major urban areas will evolve into fortified strongholds, guarded by both physical and metaphorical walls, where citizens will seek refuge and protection. These urban centers will act as enclaves of stability, with access to limited resources and advanced technologies, while the surrounding regions struggle to cope with the adverse effects of climate change. This fragmented and divided global landscape will foster a new era of socio-economic inequality and power dynamics.

The potential consequences of climate change on geopolitics are indeed dire. The projected scenarios highlight the imminent collapse of nation-states, the erosion of energy, food, and physical security outside major urban areas, and the redefinition of citizenship and nationality. If such a future emerges, we may witness the rise of a fortress world, reminiscent of feudal history, where walled cities become the epicenter of power and privilege. It is crucial for global leaders, policymakers, and citizens alike to address climate change as an urgent and collective challenge to mitigate the worst outcomes and build a more equitable and sustainable future.

Exploring Index Tracking in Foresight: A Planetary Perspective

Similar to investment strategists who rely on index tracking funds, foresight scholars and practitioners, with their emphasis on long-term perspectives, overarching trends, and transformative change, can play a vital role in defining, refining, documenting, and analyzing a wide range of indexes. 

Their focus may expand beyond predicting specific future events or developing narratives and scenarios, allowing them to delve into indexes that reflect ideologies, worldviews, and the underlying dynamics of STEEPV shifts. 

Notably, pioneers in the field of foresight have already established some best practices and benchmarks, particularly concerning global challenges and international futures.

A preliminary framework for approaching index development from a broader, "planetary" perspective can be outlined. By integrating this framework with other foresight traditions, a deeper understanding of potential and desirable futures can be achieved. After all, if something cannot be measured and tracked effectively, it is unlikely to be prioritized or addressed.

Index tracking in foresight offers a promising avenue for analyzing and monitoring societal, economic, and environmental changes on a global scale. By applying the principles of index tracking to the field of futures studies, think tanks can contribute to the development of comprehensive and meaningful indicators that encapsulate the complexities of our rapidly evolving world.

A "planetary" perspective in index development entails considering multiple dimensions, such as socio-cultural shifts, technological advancements, economic patterns, environmental changes, political dynamics, and values transformation. These dimensions form the basis for creating indexes that offer insights into the interplay between various factors shaping our future.

Furthermore, embracing a broader perspective allows for the identification of emerging trends, early signals, and potential risks and opportunities that might otherwise be overlooked. By focusing on capturing the underlying dynamics of change, foresight practitioners can contribute to the formulation of informed policies, strategies, and interventions.

Collaboration between different foresight traditions is essential for the success of index tracking in futures studies. By integrating diverse perspectives and approaches, we can foster a more comprehensive and nuanced understanding of the complex systems and interactions that influence our future trajectories.

Index tracking holds great potential for foresight scholars and practitioners to contribute to a deeper understanding of the future. By developing and utilizing indexes that reflect ideologies, worldviews, and the underlying dynamics of change, we can uncover valuable insights into the potential and desirable futures that lie ahead. With a "planetary" perspective and collaborative efforts, think tanks can ensure that we are equipped to effectively prioritize and address the challenges and opportunities that await us.