Securing Our Future: Addressing AGI Governance and Security Threats on a Planetary Scale

Jerome Glenn's letter to the editor of the Washington Post highlights the need for comprehensive security talks on artificial general intelligence (AGI) at the United Nations Security Council. He rightly expresses concern that focusing only on current forms of artificial narrow intelligence (ANI) such as ChatGPT and GPT-4 might neglect the potential risks posed by AGI, which could emerge in the next five to ten years. This analysis will explore the provided examples of AGI governance models and propose a hybrid solution for the UN to effectively address AGI governance and security threats.

Examples of AGI Governance Models:

Glenn, a global professional futurist and foresight scholar, on July 14th, 2023, provided a list of examples of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) Governance Models during his presentation at the Association of Professional Futurists (APF), Washington, D.C. gathering. The examples highlight the diverse approaches that can be taken to govern AGI effectively.

They present various governance models, each with its advantages and disadvantages. These models include:

1. IAEA-like or WTO-like model with enforcement powers,
2. IPCC-like model in conjunction with international treaties, 
3. International S&T Organization (ISTO) as a real-time global collective intelligence system,
4. Global Governance Coordinating Committees (GGCC) enforced by national sanctions and ad hoc legal rulings,
5. UN, ISO, and/or IEEE standards for auditing and licensing,
6. Putting AGI governance under different bodies like ITU, WTO, and WIPO, and
7. Establishing a Decentralized Semi-Autonomous TransInstitution.

The Hybrid Solution Model:
Considering the limited capacity of the UN to govern different domains of threats, a hybrid solution combining the IAEA operation and mission (#1) with the Decentralized Semi-Autonomous TransInstitution (#7) can be proposed. This strategic plan aims to leverage the strengths of both models to address AGI governance and security threats effectively.

Under this hybrid solution, the UN can replace human inspectors with ANI-enabled visual and camera inspections for monitoring nuclear facilities worldwide. By automating this process, countries attempting to build weapons-grade material can be swiftly identified, and appropriate actions can be taken. Violators would be automatically locked out of the world economy and banking system, while their officials would face sanctions and travel restrictions. Blockchain technology, biometrics, and smart contracts can be utilized to enforce these measures.

Expanding IAEA's Capacity for AGI Governance:
With the resources and institutional capacity of the IAEA freed up through the implementation of the hybrid solution, it can focus primarily on managing AGI. The organization can undergo transformation and expansion to effectively address the emerging challenges and risks associated with AGI. This includes developing policies, regulations, and oversight mechanisms to ensure the safe and responsible development of AGI technologies.

Establishing the Hundred Ninety Five Eyes (HNFE):
To reinforce the new institutional capacity of the IAEA and enhance its mission success, a UN summit can be called to establish the Hundred Ninety Five Eyes (HNFE). This collective worldwide real-time intelligence alliance, building on the model of the Five Eyes (FVEY), would involve all countries joining an international treaty to commit to sharing intelligence. The HNFE would govern the evolution of AGI, ensuring transparency, cooperation, and accountability among nations.

Policy Recommendation:

Based on the analysis above, the following policy recommendations can be made:

• The United Nations Security Council should prioritize discussions and formulate policies on AGI governance, acknowledging the potential existential risks posed by AGI in the near future.
• The hybrid solution model, combining the IAEA operation and mission with the Decentralized Semi-Autonomous TransInstitution, should be implemented to address nuclear technology governance and security threats effectively.
• The IAEA should focus dynamically and primarily on managing AGI, with its institutional capacity expanded and transformed to accommodate the new challenges.
• A UN summit should be organized to establish the Hundred Ninety Five Eyes (HNFE), a worldwide real-time intelligence alliance, to govern the evolution of AGI. This would ensure global cooperation, transparency, and accountability in AGI development and deployment.
• Continuous international collaboration, knowledge sharing, and periodic assessments should be conducted to adapt AGI governance policies and regulations to evolving technological advancements.

By adopting these recommendations, the UN can take proactive measures to mitigate the risks associated with AGI and establish a comprehensive international regulatory system that safeguards against the emergence of artificial superintelligence. This planetary approach ensures responsible development, fosters global cooperation, and promotes the beneficial use of AGI for the betterment of humanity.