By Victor V. Motti*
In our age of accelerating uncertainty and planetary transition, traditional paradigms of geopolitical forecasting are faltering. In response, I have spent the past decade developing new system dynamics and civilizational narratives that grapple with the deeper tides shaping humanity’s long-term future. These are explored in my books Alternative Planetary Futures and Planetary Foresight and Ethics, both now available in paperback.
One such narrative is the concept of the Unified Shift of Asia (USA). The acronym is a deliberate pun—layered, provocative, and open to multiple interpretations. It is less a prediction than an invitation to explore divergent pathways for human civilization.
Three Futures for "USA"
First, the most linear and perhaps hubristic interpretation suggests the universalization of Western civilization. In this view, the liberal-capitalist order—under the current USA—triumphs globally. The entire planet becomes, in effect, a large-scale extension of the post-WWII Atlantic model. Dissenting powers like China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran are either absorbed or rendered obsolete.
Second, a mirrored scenario unfolds. The geopolitical weight of Asia grows as the American order declines. The next "USA" may in fact be an emergent Unified Shift of Asia—a multipolar alliance led by China, Russia, or a broader pan-Asian union. The planet, once Westernized, begins to Asiatize.
Third, a more exotic possibility emerges. As outlined in the article Asia’s Exotic Futures in the Far beyond the Present (Journal of Futures Studies), Western civilization may choose exodus over confrontation—migrating to orbital colonies or terraformed outposts beyond Earth through the initiatives by Elon Musk. With the West retreating to the stars, the Earth becomes a contested and revitalized stage for civilizational resurgence from Africa, Asia, and the Global South.
Each of these futures is plausible. None are guaranteed. But all demand we rethink the assumptions baked into current policymaking, especially the idea that the future will be a mere continuation of Western leadership.
The Return of the Third Power
In Planetary Foresight and Ethics, I examine a recurring pattern in macrohistory: the rise of a third civilizational power, or super state, when two dominant ones exhaust themselves in conflict. When Rome and Persia collapsed, Islamic expansion surged. When Europe tore itself apart in two World Wars, the United States ascended. Today, we may be witnessing the early stages of a similar structural shift.
If the ongoing cold—and potentially warm—confrontation between the USA and the China-Russia axis escalates, all parties could find themselves weakened. Even limited deployment of Weapons of Mass Destruction, such as the military grade virus leak of 2020 (claiming over 7 million lives), may accelerate this decline. The emergent "third power" in this scenario may well be Indian civilization, perhaps in alliance with a rising Africa—together forming a new cultural bloc centered on spiritual pluralism, demographic momentum, and strategic nonalignment.
The Real Existential Threat: Ideological Colonialism
While many futurists point to climate change, nuclear war, or runaway AI as existential risks, I remain skeptical. These challenges are real, but they are also manageable through coordinated human effort and technological progress.
Instead, the true civilizational threat may come from a more ancient and insidious source: ideological colonialism cloaked in modern tactics. In particular, a resurgent Islamism poses a unique danger to pluralistic democracies, especially in Europe. Exploiting liberal norms, protected speech, and demographic advantage, radical Islamist movements present a totalizing worldview that refuses coexistence. Their primary target is the Western order; their secondary, the progressive left that unwittingly enables them.
This faith based ideological movement is arguably more destructive than capitalism, communism, or socialism ever were, because it fuses absolute faith with absolute politics—aiming not for reform but for annihilation of the unbeliever.
A Vision of Strategic Alliance: The Post-Islamic Axis
Amid this backdrop, a surprising alliance might emerge by 2040: Israel, post-Islamic Iran, and India. Though vastly different in history and temperament, these three actors share a deep and lived opposition to militant Islamism. Israelis are already on the frontlines. Iranian dissidents are fighting against an occupying theocracy. And India is navigating the tension of a plural society strained by Islamist separatism.
Such a triad could form the nucleus of a civilizational counteroffensive—not just military, but cultural and technological—pushing back against ideological colonization in regions from Anatolia, Mesopotamia, and the Levant to the Iranian plateau, Indian subcontinent and North Africa.
Toward a New Reconquista
An improbable yet plausible scenario emerges: a neo-Reconquista. This is a rescue operation for civilization itself, from the grip of ideologies that seek to erase creative complexity and co-evolution.
The ruins of the American, Chinese, and Russian empires may serve as fertile ground for this transformation. The world order that emerges may not be liberal or autocratic, capitalist or socialist—but something entirely new, rooted in planetary foresight and planetary consciousness.
* Victor V. Motti is the author of Planetary Foresight and Ethics
